Tuesday, November 21, 2023

The case for the Boeing P8 - a replacement for the RCAF's CP140 Aurora

Hello dear readers. If you made it this far, welcome!

So for those that know me from my career, or my various internet ramblings, mostly on @pbontoast1, I am a proponent of the P8 Poseidon as a replacement to the quickly ageing Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CP140 Aurora. Why? Follow on.

First, I make no claim to be THE expert in military operations, procurement, policy, economics, or whatever else. I am what I am, just a private citizen now with some experience that might be relevant, and a perspective that may be worth something. You decide. I also prefer not to blast a long list of credentials that might be relevant, though I can provide you a CV by other means if you wish. 

I prefer to stand on logic and truth, not by "you must believe me because I say so earnestly and with firm hand gestures, and here are all my post-nomials", which I desperately dislike from the retired senior officer crowd in particular.

What I'll cover in this piece is the case for Canada purchasing the P8 Poseidon. There's any number of ways to approach this issue - economics and price, availability, capability, requirements, interoperability, and so forth. Many of these I'll talk about. But I want to back up and start with an approach that is honestly forgotten in many conversations about the CP140 and the P8, and that's what this capability has provided for Canadians, and what it should provide for Canadians in the future. All too often a cloud of secrecy shades or hides what this capability does and why it is so vital for Canadians. If voters and taxpayers never see the results of this labour, how will they ever know what these people and aircraft do?

So, in this spirit and in the style of story telling - a style which resonates with everyone, not just defence, Air Force, academics, or policy makers, lets continue.

In 1993 a CP140 was continuously deployed to Sicily with warshot torpedoes for NATO Operation SHARP GUARD. The only deployment of a CP140 with live weapons, this operation was designed to enforce the arms embargo of Serbia and also to protect the various naval vessels deployed to the Adriatic from a submarine threat. The operation continued for a year and then was extended for another year without weapons. A solid contribution to stability in the region.

On 22 February, 1994 a ship was seized by HMCS Terra Nova of the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) in international waters east of Nova Scotia. That ship, the Motor Vessel (MV) Pacifico, was eventually found to have transported more than 5 tons of cocaine to Canada. Central to the published story was Terra Nova and her boarding party as well as the legal arguments required to seize a ship in international waters. Not well known is the role surveillance played in the take down, from international intelligence gathering to identify the shipment, to the police, to tracking the shipment from it's origin, to the take down. A vital part of the take down was evidence that the MV Pacifico was truly involved in smuggling drugs into Canada, and especially since she remained in international waters for her entire voyage, never entering Canadian waters. What happened was those that were watching the ship witnessed a second small vessel rendezvous with the Pacifico, remain alongside for a period of time, then return to a Canadian port thereby establishing a link to Canadian soil. In the doctrine of hot pursuit the Terra Nova was then authorized to stop and seize the Pacifico as it fled away from Canada. The smaller vessel was also seized at the Canadian port by police. While a number of sensors were watching events unfold, a CP140 Aurora was at the center of the evidence required for the arrests. A massive drug bust and solid contribution to Canadian security.

On 9/10 December 1994 the MV Salvador Allende foundered and sank in a storm 1200 nautical miles east of the US. This was an extreme distance for any land based search and rescue assets to get to, let alone rescue anyone in life rafts or adrift. As part of a huge effort between passing vessels who aided the search, US Coast Guard, US Air National Guard, US Marines and RCAF C130 and CP140 aircraft the scene was searched and a few survivors plucked from the ocean by long range air to air refueled helicopters. The CP140 with it's range, endurance, crew, communications suite and sensors was an ideal platform to coordinate the search efforts of multiple ships and aircraft that arrived on scene. Without that coordination, the search would not be effective, and multiple CP140 missions flew on the rescue - in the end, the RCAF flew 15 missions to the limits of their endurance in terrible weather, accumulating more than 150 flight hours. https://www.nytimes.com/1994/12/10/nyregion/atlantic-storm-casts-31-adrift-as-ship-sinks.html

On 13 November 1998 the RCAF tasked a crew from 14 Wing Greenwood, Nova Scotia to support the Department of Fisheries and Oceans by carrying a Fisheries Officer and conducting surveillance of the fishing fleets on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The crew flew from Greenwood to St John's, Nfld to pick up the fisheries officer, then flew the surveillance mission at low level over fishing fleets covering most of the Grand Banks fishing fleets, most outside but very near Canada's Exclusive Economic Zone of 200 nautical miles off shore in that area. This type of presence and surveillance sends a message to fishing fleets that Canada is interested and watching, reducing over fishing and violations of fishing bans. The crew flew for more than 10 hours that day and again the range and endurance of the large aircraft along with its sensors and crew makes this mission possible, and also impossible for smaller lighter aircraft.

In March 1998 a CP140 crew deployed to Andoya, Norway to fly 50 hours over several weeks in support of a large NATO maritime exercise in the Norwegian Sea. The capability to quickly deploy and integrate with a large NATO force in a wartime scenario exercise is critical for Canada's support to NATO and its allies. No other aircraft could deploy this quickly, at that distance, and integrate with a NATO maritime force so quickly in a wartime scenario.

Currently CP140 Auroras and the RCN routinely deploy to Asia under Operation NEON, consisting of maritime surveillance in support of UN sanctions. Again, deploying at such a distance from Canada requires logistical support - parts, expertise etc which no other capability could achieve at such a distance from Canada and complete the surveillance mission. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/operations/military-operations/current-operations/operation-neon.html

And so on. And I haven't even talked about some of the larger wartime missions like Operation IMPACT, or Operation SIRIUS, or Operation APOLLO - I'm sure my colleagues can tell considerable stories about those deployments.

These missions and stories could not be told without a long range, large aircraft with sufficient crew, sensor and weapons, properly supported in distant deployment locations, and an ability to integrate with other forces.

The question now is what can replace the rapidly ageing CP140 and its crew, sensors and weapons if we value these missions as Canadians?

Well.

I want to cut to the chase quite quickly and state that no aircraft other than the P8 Poseidon can carry the weapons and sensors needed for these missions. Just in two critical areas alone - to carry the weight of the stores and weapons, and to generate the power required to energize the communications and mission equipment is quite difficult and near impossible for smaller aircraft. Let's explore these two areas.

On electrical power, it becomes very clear when engineers calculate the kVa (kilovolt-amps, a typical measure of the power of an electrical system) required to run concurrently the sensors, flight systems, navigation, and communication systems required for the missions above that smaller aircraft will have severe deficiencies and large trade offs, or be completely incapable of generating the required power to do the mission.

On weapons. The primary weapon of the CP140 and P8 Poseidon is the light weight Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) torpedo, though both aircraft could carry a wide range of weapons for other missions. Lightweight torpedoes are fire and forget weapons that have their own active sonar in the nose. Drop the weapon in a good position, the torpedo finds and neutralizes its target independently. Lightweight torpedoes have a lot going on under the hood - an active sonar in the nose, electronics, propulsion, and stabilizing parachutes. This means that current and capable light weight torpedoes require a heated bomb bay to protect the weapon from the extreme elements of long range aviation. Could lightweight torpedoes be carried under the wings? Not in their current design, no, but of course a new weapon could be developed to do so - it would take a significant engineering and test effort however.

Only one aircraft is suitable for the power generation and bomb bay capabilities required - the P8 Poseidon. I will concede I know little about the Japanese P1 currently flying with Japanese forces, other than it has not been seriously offered for sale outside of Japan, and doesn't seem fully operational yet, even after twenty years of development. An analysis of the required interoperability with NATO and Canada's allies would likely uncover deficiencies in communication systems, sensors and the like which would seriously degrade the performance of the P1 in missions that Canada values with its partners.

On these two aspects alone - electrical power and weapons, the P8 Poseidon is the sole aircraft that can meet the missions stated for the Canadian Multi Mission Aircraft requirement http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/business-defence-acquisition-guide-2016/aerospace-systems-57.page

Don't get me wrong - I'm not a Boeing shill. I would much prefer, as would most of my colleagues I'm sure, a four engine turbo prop aircraft. Most of us were skeptical of the 737 as a basis for a new long range patrol aircraft simply because it could not operate as freely as the P3/CP140 at low levels over water, typically below 1000 feet while on station. Conducting anti submarine warfare requires the accuracy and precision gained by being much closer to your target - low level. Operating two high bypass turbo fan engines at low level where they are less efficient (turbo props become more efficient at lower levels due to the density of air) and subject to corrosion from salt air and at risk of ingesting birds has always been and will continue to be an issue with the P8. In addition the P8 is simply a much larger wing than the P3/CP140 making it less maneuverable, a trait much less desirable while tracking very quick and stealthy submarines. Many of us suffered significant turbulence and G forces while chasing very quick submarines in stiff winged P3/CP140s - the P8 is likely less capable in this area, and advances in sensors will offset this trait to some degree, but the bottom line is a lightweight torpedo must be placed very accurately, at low level, to have any chance of finding and attacking its target before fuel starvation.

Of course there are many other aspects to the P8 that could be discussed and I may add to this article in the future. But for me the bottom line is the missions that Canadians value must continue, and the only aircraft available that meets our requirements is the P8 Poseidon.

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